AL East Position Matchup: Starting Rotations

Posted on March 6, 2012 by TOB$

This ranking is going to be a bit different from my others. Instead of evaluating each teams No. 1- 5 starters individually, I am going to rank each teams starting rotations. Because of this, it is a bit longer than the rest. The Yankees made the biggest splash over the offseason, adding Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda to their rotation, while dumping inconsistent AJ Burnett and his large contract. The Sox took a different approach, hoping to bolster their rotation through some of their best arms in the bullpen last year.

Here’s how the rankings shake out:
For previous positional rankings click here: C–1B–2B–3B–SS–LF–CF–RF–DH

1. Tampa Bay Rays (D. Price, J. Shields, J. Hellickson, W. Davis, M. Moore)
2. New York Yankees (C. Sabathia, M. Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda, I. Nova, P. Hughes)
3. Boston Red Sox (J. Beckett, J. Lester, C. Buchholz, D. Bard, A. Aceves/A. Miller)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (R. Romero, B. Morrow, B. Cecil, H. Alvarez, D. McGowan)
5. Baltimore Orioles (Z. Britton, T. Wada, W. Chen, T. Hunter, J. Hammel/ J. Arrieta)

The Rays are the clear choice for the number one rotation in the East, considering they arguably have the top rotation in all of the American League. The Rays rotation is real good, and really, really young. Their starting rotations average age is 25. Leading the way for the Rays is former 1st pick and Vanderbilt standout David Price. His outstanding college career has quickly become an afterthought to his already outstanding 4 year Major League career. Price immediately became a force against big league hitters, shutting up the Sox in the ALCS in 2008 with a win and a save. Although Price saw a bump up in his ERA (3.49 in 2011 vs 2.72 in 2010), many analysts believe he actually pitched better in his 12-13 campaign last year than his 19-6 2010 season. Despite his bloated ERA, Price increased his K/9 ratio, while also dramatically lowering his walks/9. James Shields is the Rays second pitcher. He had an outstanding year in 2011, with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP and 225 K’s. Despite his great year, statistics point to the fact that Shields got a bit lucky and I see him regressing a bit to his career norms with an ERA around 3.9 and WHIP around 1.2, still good numbers for a number 2 pitcher. Rounding out the Rays rotation is Jeremy Hellickson, Rookie of the Year last year, Wade Davis, and Matt Moore. All are great options in the end of the rotation. Hellickson had a sub-3 ERA, but had the lowest BABIP (opponents Batting Average on Balls in Play) by a starter since 1988 (.224). I don’t see him being so lucky this year, but I expect an ERA around 4. Wade Davis is the worst out of the bunch, after seeing his ERA and WHIP rise during each of his three seasons in the bigs. Despite this, he is still only 26 and can be a very valuable fifth pitcher for the Rays. Matt Moore is the most intriguing of the entire rotation. At 22, Moore ranks as the top prospect for 2012. He had a similar impact to Price in his first small stint in the Majors last year. He pitched stellar for the Rays in their only win vs the Rangers in last years ALDS with 7IP, 2H, 2B, 0 ER and 6K’s. The 6-2 lefty has a fastball that tops out around 97 mph, coupled with an incredible curveball. Moore is definitely a prospect to watch throughout the year for the Rays.

Next up is the Yankees. Their starting rotation this year is determined to make sure their team is not only known for its outstanding offense, but solid pitching as well. CC Sabathia is their ace and arguably the best pitcher in the division, with at least 19 wins in each of his three years with the Yanks. CC has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the league in the past five years, reaching at least 230 innings in every year. At 31 years old, CC should have no problem having another great year for the Yanks. Michael Pineda was the Yankees biggest offseason acquisition this year, as he came over in January in a trade for Jesus Montero. Montero was one of the Yankees most coveted prospects, which says a lot of Pineda’s value. Pineda is one of the best young pitchers in the MLB. He is a 22 year old, 6′ 7″ giant who just throws straight fire. He had the fourth highest average MPH on his fastball in the entire league at age 22. His fastball combined with his filthy slider led to a 9.1 K/9 last year. Although Pineda has displayed brilliance, there are questions to his consistency (he was 8-6 with 3.03 ERA in 1st half of 2011, 1-4 with 5.12 ERA in 2nd half). Also, he has an “inverted W” pitching style, (similar style to Adam Wainwright, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Stephen Strasburg, Joba “the Hut” Chamberlain), which puts an unhealthy amount of stress on your elbow. Basically, what that means is that he’s eventually going to need Tommy John Surgery. They also added Hiroki Kuroda from the Dodgers, which was a big move because the Sox were very interested in him. Kuroda was as consistent as you could get as a starting pitcher in the last few years. Although his record didn’t reflect his good pitching due to shit run support, he had 3.45 ERA the past four years, including a career best 3.07 ERA last year. Despite this, Kuroda is 36 years old and has pitched on crappy teams, so his ERA could potentially balloon when the pressures on in New York. Rounding up the Yankees rotation is Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes. Nova had 16 wins last year in his rookie season, with a 3.70 ERA. Nova is a ground ball pitcher, which could hurt him giving the aging Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez on the left side of his infield, so I project some regression from his stellar rookie year. Hughes is projected to fill out the competition for the last spot in the Yankee rotation. He was once regarded as a top prospect, but has gotten murdered during a few of his stints in the majors. He has displayed greatness both as a starter and out of the bullpen, but needs to limit his mistakes in order to be an effective starter, especially now that he has a slower fastball than years prior.

The Red Sox fill out the third spot in the ranking. Their top three starters all have the potential to be Cy Young candidates. The most frustrating is Clay Buchholz. Clay displayed brilliance in 2007 when he pitched a no-hitter in his second Major League game. Then he battled depression and got rocked in the Majors and looked as if his career had gone sour. Fortunately Clay came back and dominated the big leagues in 2010 with a 2.33 ERA. Clay’s career took another downfall last year when his season was shortened to a back injury. Hopefully he’s fully healed from his injury and can return smoothly this year. Josh Beckett is another frustrating pitcher of the Sox. We all know what happened in the collapse of last year and Beckett was one of the major problems. Beckett is 31 and entering his 7th year with the Sox, but this year he will be without his personal catcher Jason Varitek. How he will do without Tek remains to be answered. He still finished with a solid year last year despite the collapse (13-7 2.89 ERA 1.03WHIP), so let’s hope he comes back with a mean streak with the desire to prove all the doubters wrong. Jon Lester, on the other hand, has been very consistent for the Sox in the past four years, with an ERA below 3.47 and at least 15 wins in each year. I think Lester is the number one candidate to be a leader for the rotation and take last years collapse on his back. He showed he can handle adversity when he battled cancer in 2006 at age 22, so I think he’ll be able to help the Sox put last year behind them. Daniel Bard is expected to fill the fourth spot of the Sox rotation, despite his great success in the Sox bullpen the last few years. He displays a lot of upside, but did not prove himself as a starter in the minors, so it should be interesting to see his development. Bard can always be put back into the bullpen if this doesn’t work out (think the Papelbon experiment in 2007’s spring training). Alfredo Aceves and Andrew Miller should duke it out for the last spot in the rotation. I’m hoping Miller finally lives up to hype as a former first round pick with the Tigers, considering he is only 26 years old.

The fourth best rotation is the Blue Jays, who aren’t far behind the Sox. Ricky Romero is their ace, who went 15-11 with a sub-3 ERA. Although I expect his ERA to increase a little from last years numbers, Romero is still a great first option in the AL East. Brandon Morrow is the Jays second option. Morrow has always displayed a high K/9 rate and a solid WHIP (1.29 last year), but has continually displayed problems pitching with runners on base, resulting in higher ERA’s. (4.72 last year, 4.37 career). Morrow is a good pitcher, but I think he is better suited for the bullpen. Brett Cecil and Dustin McGowan will be average pitchers at best. Cecil got hit hard in April last year and was sent down to Triple-A for a few months, but was too high of a draft pick for the Jays to give up on. McGowan dealt with shoulder surgeries from 2008-2010, and came back last year with control issues. Durability remains a question with him. The Jays last spot is filled with Henderson Alvarez, who thrives on his incredible control (1.13 BB/9). He pitched well in his 10 starts last year and should continue to perform well if he can keep the ball on the ground and maintain his control.

The Orioles remain in the cellar for starting rotation rankings. They don’t deserve much even being said about them. They traded their best pitcher Jeremy Guthrie away to the Rockies in the offseason. On the bright side, they acquired two pitchers from the Japanese league that figure to grab a spot in the rotation. Tsuyoshi Wada had a 1.51 ERA last year, but we all know how well Dice-K’s stills translated to the MLB. Wada is a control pitcher whose pitches top out around the high 80’s. Wei-Yin Chen is a 26 year old lefty that throws harder than Wada and has had a 2.48 ERA over the past four seasons in Japan. I don’t see these two pitchers making a big impact in the offensively stacked AL East. Zach Britton led the Orioles last year with a whopping 11 wins. Jason Hammel, Tommy Hunter, James Arrieta, and Chris Tillman look like they will all fight for starting rotation spots, but none of these pitchers look like they will have much impact.

For previous positional rankings click here: C–1B–2B–3B–SS–LF–CF–RF–DH

Bruins Sign Marty Turco!

Posted on March 6, 2012 by amazze

This is a smart move by Peter Chiarelli. After losing Tuukka Rask for 4-6 weeks with a lower abdomen/groin strain the Bruins were left with fourth string Providence goaltender Michael Hutchinson to back up Tim Thomas. I like this signing because it gives the Bruins a veteran, with experience, who won’t be rattled in games down the stretch when Timmy needs a break. Turco is 36 years old and has a career 2.35 goals against average .910 save percentage, primarily with the Dallas Stars. He wasn’t great for the Blackhawks in 2010-2011 (Turco has been playing in Austria this year), but he is only going to be needed as a short-term stop-gap as he is not eligible for the Stanley Cup playoffs because he was acquired after the trade deadline. Turco is expected to join the B’s on Wednesday and I would expect Claude to start him within the week to get him into the flow of the team and the NHL game.

Power Forward Grades

Posted on March 6, 2012 by leibo4

Player	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Blocks	Steals	+/-	PER
Brandon Bass	11.0	6	1	.9	.41	+47	15

Positives: Trading Bass for Big Baby was a great move for the Celtics. Bass has probably one of the best midrange jumpers in the game. Even though his jumper makes you think he’s an inch from falling over every time, it is one of the most pure in the game. When he and KG are on the floor at the same time, the Celtics become a much better team. They space the floor and create more open shots for Pierce and Allen. Bass also gives the Celtics a good isolation player in the post. Finally Bass brings an energy and willingness to bang on the boards which lacks from most of the Celtics big men. Played though a tough knee injury for two weeks until he was forced out by the doctors

Negatives: While he is learning the complex defensive schemes of the Celtics, the basic fact remains that Bass is not a great defender. He has definitely improved this season playing with KG and for Doc, but some weaknesses still remain. He is not tall and can be shot over by taller players.

Grade: B+

Player	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Blocks	Steals	+/-	PER
Chris Wilcox	5.6	4.5	.5	.35	.42	+23	13.7

Positives: Wilcox is an above average offensive player who brings energy off the bench for the Celtics. He is the best at getting out in transition and Rondo rewards him with alley-oops most of the time. Big time energy player for the Celtics, but his production depends on his health.

Negatives: Has been injury prone throughout his career, and it hasn’t changed this year. He is also undersized and when he finds himself on the floor with someone other than KG, the Celtics begin to get manhandled in the post.

Grade: B-

Player	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Blocks	Steals	+/-	PER
Jujuan Johnson	4.0	1.5	.2	.43	.14	+7	15.9

Positives: Johnson has been a nice surprise for the Celtics. As many people wrote him off as a prospect until he put on some weight, Jujuan has shown his scoring ability translates to the NBA. John Hollinger isn’t surprised as he said that he will be a solid role player for years to come. He has been a good help defender and is learning Doc’s schemes well.

Negatives: For being 6’10 he needs to get his body weight up. He is way to skinny to bang with Gerald Green nevertheless players like Amare Stoudemire. Needs to work on his rebounding a little bit, but I feel it will come when he starts filling out his body.

Grade: B

Other Position Grades

Small Forward

Shooting Guard

Point Guard

Rondo or No Rondo?

Posted on March 6, 2012 by jtulz07

Everywhere you go it’s Rondo this, Rondo that, but how could we ignore him after this past weekend? For weeks, rather all season long, there’s been talk and rumors of Danny looking to trade Rondo. With Rondo sidelined earlier in the season, the C’s rode their largest win streak of the season. The combination of his inconsistency and poor attitude, accompanied with an urge for team improvement were all pointing him in one direction…away from Boston.

Sunday, Rondo once again showed Danny and the rest of the city why he belongs in green. From day one, I’ve thought the idea of getting rid of our young, dynamic point guard was a mistake. With potentially the last run at the finals left for the Big Three, losing Rondo would leave us with nothing next season. Each time we doubt him he proves us wrong. After putting up Hall of Fame numbers against the Knicks Sunday is there really any argument left? Leibo made a good point yesterday in his article (Rondo vs. Williams). The NBA has seen ten triple-doubles this year. Four of them are from Rajon Rondo. I think it’s safe to say he’s staying in Boston. Either way, what do you guys think? Keep him or trade him in hopes of something better?

Bruins Weekend Recap

Posted on March 5, 2012 by amazze

The Bruins had a tough weekend dropping two games the New York squads, each by one goal. The lost a tough one to the Islanders at the Garden as a result of a blown icing call by the officials. I was at the game and it was a clear-cut, textbook, icing that was waved off for inexplicable reasons. This caused the three B’s forwards to pause for just long enough to create a breakout opportunity going the other way resulting in the GWG for the Islanders. Overall, the team played well, but you have to put more pucks in the back of the net against the Isles, considering they scored 12 goals in their previous two games against them. To add insult to injury, the B’s lost Tuukka Rask and Daniel Paille to injury. Definitely not what we need heading into the stretch run. Paille is great on the energy line and PK, and losing Tuukka will make things more difficult for Timmy moving forward because he will see a heavy workload.

After Saturday’s loss the Bruins made their way to Madison Square Garden to face the conference-leading New York Rangers. Despite a horrific start (falling behind 2-0 in the 1st period) the Bruins outplayed the Rangers for most of the game. They put together about 53 strong minutes and 7 poor minutes but that was enough to cost them the game. Thomas wasn’t his best given his atrocious save percentage but in a 7 game series I am confident he can match or outplay Henrik. In fact, I hope we play these guys in the playoffs because I know the B’s can beat them even though it has not played out as well as we could hope in the regular season. Maybe it will give the Rangers some false confidence.

Who had the Better Night Rondo or Williams?

Posted on March 5, 2012 by leibo4

Rajon Rondo had a night for the ages yesterday against Linsanity, as he became only the third player in NBA history to have over 15 points, 20 assists, and 15 rebounds. Then not to be outdone, Deron Williams had a game for the ages. He scored 57 points and went 21 from 21 from the foul line. So here comes the question. Who had the better night?

Players	MIN	FGM-A	3PM-A	FTM-A	OREB	DREB	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PF	+/-	PTS
Rajon Rondo, PG	48	7-20	0-0	4-7	4	13	17	20	1	1	4	3	+5	18
Deron Williams, PG	38	16-29	4-11	21-21	1	5	6	7	1	1	5	2	+11	57

Espn.com

Rondo’s stats were obviously helped by the extra overtime period. As that’s when he came up with some of his best play scoring 5 points, 2 assists, and grabbed 5 rebounds. He could have easily had 5-10 more points as he missed 3 free throws and a few easy layups throughout the game. But time and time again whenever the Celtics needed some points, Rondo found the basket or the open man. He was huge for a team in need of a big lift.

Williams had 17 points at the half and then exploded in the 3^rd quarter for 22 points. Williams is the total package as a point guard, quick, strong, with great vision, and a great outside shot. He absolutely dominated the two smaller Charlotte Bobcat point guards, Kemba Walker and D.J. Augustine in the paint. He bullied the two point guards until the Bobcats were forced to put Gerald Henderson on him down low, and then Williams went to work on him. The Bobcats decided to not double team off pick and rolls and it came back to bite them hard.

I have to give the edge to Rondo here, as the competition for the Celtics was a whole lot better than the Nets had last night. Other than the Heat it’s hard to find a hotter team than the Knicks right now, and Rondo clearly outclassed the Knick team last night. Deron had an unbelievable game, but it came against a team that has 4 wins on the season and is already looking towards next year. It’s hard to pick against him, but you don’t see nights where a player finds himself alone with Wilt Chamberlain and the
“Big O” Oscar Robertson too often.

Edge: Rajon Rondo

Celtics Weekend Review

Posted on March 5, 2012 by leibo4

The Celtics came out of the Weekend back over .500 as they won both games over the Nets and the Knicks. The Celtics beat the New Jersey Nets 107-94 and the Knicks 115-111 in overtime. Pierce was the leading scorer in both games as he scored 27 and 34 points. Kevin Garnett had double-doubles in both games as shot over 50% for the weekend in total. But the weekend belonged to Rondo. Rondo had 14 points and 13 assists in the first game, and then exploded Sunday for 18 points, 17 rebounds, and 20 assists. This was the third game in the last three weeks where Rondo had a triple double, and his fourth of the season. According ESPN Rondo joins Wilt Chamberlain and Oscar Robertson as the third NBA player in history to have over 15 points, 15 rebounds, and 20 assists.

Player	Points	Rebounds	Assists
Rajon Rondo	18	17	20
Wilt Chamberlain	22	25	21
Oscar Robertson	32	15	20

Add in all the missed layups Rondo had in the game and he could have easily had 25-30 points. Rajon also became only the 3^rd player in the last 25 seasons to have over 15 points, assists, and rebounds in a single game, joining Jason Kidd and Magic Johnson. Shout out to my friend Cody for this stat, the NBA has had 10 triple-doubles this season, and Rajon Rondo has four of them. He has been the only player with more than one triple-double on the season.

Ever since the Jermaine O’Neal has been out with his injured wrist, KG has slid over to the five position. It has been huge for the Celtics. The rebounding has been better, and KG’s defense on the 5’s has been great. He has also been able to get his shot off better as the 5’s do not want to come out as far to defend KG and let him drive by for the easy two. If or when O’Neal comes back, the Celtics should stick with KG at the five and have Jermaine come off the bench. Bass and Wilcox are playing too well at the four to have both of them come off the bench for the rest of the season.

The Celtics play next on Tuesday at the Garden against the Houston Rockets at 7:30 PM.

Weekend Recap

Posted on March 5, 2012 by christoph131

#6 UNC opened up with a 48-24 halftime lead en route to beating #3 Duke to claim the ACC title on Saturday night. Duke shot an awful 41.3% from the field while UNC shot nearly 55%. All of the Tar Heel’s starters finished with double digits in points. Tyler Zeller dropped 19 and grabbed 10 boards while John Henson contributed 13 points, 10 rebounds. Sophomore Kendall Marshall scored a game-high 20 points while adding 10 assists. The Tar Heels out-rebounded the Blue Devils 42-22.

Other Games
#2 Syracuse 58                  #18 Lousiville 49
#4 Kansas 73                      Texas 63
#7 Marquette 83              #12 Georgetown 69
#10 Baylor 72                     Iowa State 80

#1 Kentucky easily handled #13 Florida to finish 16-0 in the Southeastern Conference. They finished at 30-1 during the regular season. Anthony Davis had an incredible night shooting (9-13) for 22 points while grabbing 12 boards and 6 blocks. Terrence Jones also played well for the Wildcats with 19 points. Florida shot a perfect 11-11 from the free throw line but only shot 38.2% from the field.

#11 Ohio State handed #5 Michigan State their second loss in the last 5 days with a 72-70 victory. Guard William Buford scored 25 points while Jarrod Sullinger scored 14 points and grabbed 10 boards. Michigan State star Draymond Green scored 19 points and grabbed 12 boards of his own.

Jermaine O’Neal Injury News

Posted on March 2, 2012 by leibo4

Jermaine O’Neal injured his wrist in the game against the Mavericks and it was initially ruled as a sprained left wrist. He met with a hand specialist in Boston and the injury was ruled much more serious than expected. Gary Washburn of the Boston Globe reported that O’Neal has three options.

1.) Take a cortisone shot

2.) Minor wrist surgery

3.) Season-ending wrist surgery

O’Neal is currently deciding on which situation to choose. It should be noted that Jermaine has struggled with wrist injuries in the past.

Going forward, it looks like Garnett will get moved to center and it looks like Brandon Bass will start at power forward. Chris Wilcox and Jujuan Johnson will get more run off the bench as the Celtics will probably run more in transition.

If the Celtics end up losing Jermaine for the season, they will be losing what has been their best post defender this season. Jermaine O’Neal has been rated by synergy as one of the top-ten defensive players in the NBA this season. He has a unique ability to be able to block shots and take charges. But at this point in his career Jermaine is extremely weak offensively. He ranks 49^th out of all centers offensively this season even 9 spots behind the steamer, Greg Stiemsma.

Hopefully Jermaine comes back this season and helps the Celtics. I was hoping that they would be able to use his contract to trade for some future assets or players (Michael Beasley’s contract matches up nicely). But I am trying to not to get too greedy.

Bruins Get a Win, Krejci Quiets Critics

Posted on March 2, 2012 by amazze

The Bruins got a huge 4-3 OT victory vs. a solid New Jersey Devils team at the garden last night. David Krejci has three of the four Bruins goals last night after only two goals in his previous thirteen games. The sudden spark might have been a result of a Julien lineup switch that returned Krejci back to his center position and paired with Tyler Seguin. I’d say that worked out well. Krejci comes up with a hat trick on five shots and Seguin buried the other goal with a snipe and also added an assist. If this new pairing can generate some much-needed offense for the Bruins it will be huge as the team gets ready for the stretch run.

Krejci has had an up and down, boom or bust type of year. He has been working hard, but sometimes he just doesn’t play with the confidence that should play with and it affects his performance on the ice. When plays with swag, he makes dazzling passes and his linemates always benefit from that. Krejci does seem to come up big in important moments (like the playoffs) so maybe now that we are starting to approach the end of season he will improve his consistency, which is going to help Seguin’s production (assuming they stay together) and help the Bruin’s skill players put more crooked numbers on the scoreboard.