Red Sox Add Mike Carp Via Trade

Shipping Up to Boston: The Boston Red Sox acquired OF/1B Mike Carp this week from the Seattle Mariners, after agreeing to trade a player to be named later or a cash consideration in exchange for Carp. Carp will join the Red Sox in Fort Myers, FL tomorrow (Friday February 22nd) to begin his Spring Training.

Carp’s Numbers: In 2012 Carp batted .213 last year with 5 HR and 20 RBI in just 59

games. That’s a steady decline from 2011 when he batted .275 for 12 HR and 46 RBI in 79 games. Carp missed the majority of the past two seasons with the Mariners due to shoulder injury issues. Carp is a .255 career hitter with 18 HR and 71 RBI.

Can Carp Contribute?: Yes, yes he can. While Carp’s numbers certainly don’t leap off the stat sheet, he was acquired by the Red Sox to primarily add depth to first base and the outfield. Something the Sox certainly need this season.

The addition of Carp allows for breathing room at these positions, should Napoli’s hip injury re-surface or one of the outfielders go down. At 26 years-old Carp is a young platoon-type player that the Red Sox can work with and get solid production from, for little cost.

Final Thoughts: I like the addition of Carp in that the Sox aren’t giving up much for him and he could have tremendous upside in Boston. I look at it this way: If Carp (who has yet to play a full MLB Season) can stay healthy and provide the depth the Sox need, the trade is a great payoff. I have a feeling Carp could be the surprise of the season for Boston.

One last note on Carp coming to the Red Sox, in order to make room for him on the 40-man roster Boston had to put OF Ryan Kalish on the 60-day disabled list. Kalish you may remember is still recovering from right shoulder surgery.

Can Carp help the Red Sox this season? Leave a comment below

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Boston Red Sox 2013 Season Preview

With pitchers and catchers meeting in Fort Myers, FL this Sunday (Feb.10th) baseball season is officially back!! Well alright, “technically” it’s not back until Feb. 21st when the Red Sox  play Northeastern in their first scheduled Spring Training game. Nevertheless, with the season, and spring, right around the corner; I thought I’d give the Fenway Faithful a preview of what 2013 should look like for the Bo-Sox.

Likely Lineups:

1.OF Shane Victorino

2. OF Jacoby Ellsbury

3. 2B Dustin Pedroia

4. DH David Ortiz

5. 1B Mike Napoli

6. OF Jonny Gomes

7. 3B Will Middlebrooks

8. SS Stephen Drew

9. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Granted this is just a rough draft of what the lineup “could look like”. Only John Farrell will truly be able to assemble a proper lineup when spring training is complete. For now, the above lineup is my take on where Farrell may go with the batting order.

The lineup could very well have Ellsbury and Napoli batting Cleanup at 3 and 4 which would then likely shift Dustin Pedroia to bat 2nd in front of Ellsbury and have Papi batting 5th after Napoli. Also, Farrell may choose to have a healthy Ellsbury be the lead-off hitter, which Ellsbury has certainly had success at in seasons past. However if Ellsbury puts up 2011 numbers this season, having him 2nd or 3rd could be more beneficial for the Red Sox as far as RBI production is concerned.

Lastly, the bottom of the order is subject to change as well. Middlebrooks, Gomes, and Drew could all bat lower or higher based on their spring training results. Salty will stay at the bottom of the order until he can prove he’s the switch hitting prodigy he was supposed to be. Only time will tell what the everyday batting order will eventually look like.

5 Man Rotation:

1. Jon Lester. 2. Ryan Dempster. 3. Clay Bucholz. 4. Felix Doubront. 5. John Lackey

While the pitching rotation isn’t exactly terrifying to many teams in the majors, this assembly of arms can get the job done for Boston. Lester and Bucholz will have to bounce back, Dempster will have to pitch more consistently than in seasons past, Felix Doubront will have to prove he wasn’t just a one year wonder baller, and John Lackey will have to return to his prime if the Sox want to get the most wins out of this group.

The rotation may change throughout the season, as it often does, as the Red Sox have options should one of these guys fold. Boston can bring up the likes of Rubby De la Rosa or Allen Webster from Triple-A Pawtucket if those two show they are primed for a big league day job.

Also, Boston could add to the Rotation if they choose to sign still-free-agent starting pitcher Kyle Lohse (formerly with the St. Louis Cardinals). Again like the lineup above, only time will tell what is working, and what needs to be worked out.

The Pen:

Relievers: 1. Andrew Bailey 2. Koji Uehara 3. Daniel Bard 4. Craig Breslow 5. Alfredo Aceves

Closer: Joel Hanrahan

The Red Sox Bullpen as it stands right now is the strongest weapon Boston has entering this season. While the 5-man rotation could use some re-tooling, and our lineup is still missing a big bat or two, the pen looks to have great promise in 2013.

Boston went out in the off-season and added the likes of relievers Koji Uehara and Craig Breslow, and new closer Joel Hanrahan to sure up the 7th,8th and 9th innings for this year. All of which were inexpensive upgrades that should ultimately pay off for the Red Sox.

Win-Loss/ Post-Season Projections:

Though I’m a die-hard Red Sox fan to my very core, I must blog with a sense of realism in making these next few predictions.

Win-Loss Record: 85-77 (I didn’t just come up with this record out of thin air just so you know. I went through the entire schedule and chose game by game what I thought were wins and losses for the Red Sox.)

AL East Finish: I sadly have the Red Sox finishing third this year just ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays by a few games. I see the Toronto Blue Jays meeting everyone’s expectations and winning the east with the Yankees somehow frustratingly finishing in 2nd place. The Orioles return to their usual spot, in the AL East’ cellar in last place.

Postseason: With the Sox finishing third by my count, there will be no post-season play for this Red Sox group. I have the Blue Jays clinching a spot with the division crown and the New York Yankees beating out Boston for the final of two Wild Card spots by a few games.

Final Thoughts: I whole heartedly hope I’m way wrong about my season predictions for the Red Sox. I hope some how, some way, the Red Sox can bring back some of that 2004 magic and sneak into the post-season. Realistically though, I only foresee a minor improvement for Boston as this is a rebuilding year. I look at it this way, ANY results this season should be better than last seasons 69-93 last place finish. How do you see the 2013 season going for Boston? Leave a comment below.

AL East Position Matchup: Starting Rotations

This ranking is going to be a bit different from my others. Instead of evaluating each teams No. 1- 5 starters individually, I am going to rank each teams starting rotations. Because of this, it is a bit longer than the rest. The Yankees made the biggest splash over the offseason, adding Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda to their rotation, while dumping inconsistent AJ Burnett and his large contract. The Sox took a different approach, hoping to bolster their rotation through some of their best arms in the bullpen last year.

Here’s how the rankings shake out:
For previous positional rankings click here: C1B2B3BSSLFCFRFDH

1. Tampa Bay Rays (D. Price, J. Shields, J. Hellickson, W. Davis, M. Moore)
2. New York Yankees (C. Sabathia, M. Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda, I. Nova, P. Hughes)
3. Boston Red Sox (J. Beckett, J. Lester, C. Buchholz, D. Bard, A. Aceves/A. Miller)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (R. Romero, B. Morrow, B. Cecil, H. Alvarez, D. McGowan)
5. Baltimore Orioles (Z. Britton, T. Wada, W. Chen, T. Hunter, J. Hammel/ J. Arrieta)

The Rays are the clear choice for the number one rotation in the East, considering they arguably have the top rotation in all of the American League. The Rays rotation is real good, and really, really young. Their starting rotations average age is 25. Leading the way for the Rays is former 1st pick and Vanderbilt standout David Price.  His outstanding college career has quickly become an afterthought to his already outstanding 4 year Major League career. Price immediately became a force against big league hitters, shutting up the Sox in the ALCS in 2008 with a win and a save. Although Price saw a bump up in his ERA (3.49 in 2011 vs 2.72 in 2010), many analysts believe he actually pitched better in his 12-13 campaign last year than his 19-6 2010 season. Despite his bloated ERA, Price increased his K/9 ratio, while also dramatically lowering his walks/9. James Shields is the Rays second pitcher. He had an outstanding year in 2011, with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP and 225 K’s. Despite his great year, statistics point to the fact that Shields got a bit lucky and I see him regressing a bit to his career norms with an ERA around 3.9 and WHIP around 1.2, still good numbers for a number 2 pitcher. Rounding out the Rays rotation is Jeremy Hellickson, Rookie of the Year last year, Wade Davis, and Matt Moore. All are great options in the end of the rotation. Hellickson had a sub-3 ERA, but had the lowest BABIP (opponents Batting Average on Balls in Play) by a starter since 1988 (.224). I don’t see him being so lucky this year, but I expect an ERA around 4. Wade Davis is the worst out of the bunch, after seeing his ERA and WHIP rise during each of his three seasons in the bigs. Despite this, he is still only 26 and can be a very valuable fifth pitcher for the Rays. Matt Moore is the most intriguing of the entire rotation. At 22, Moore ranks as the top prospect for 2012. He had a similar impact to Price in his first small stint in the Majors last year. He pitched stellar for the Rays in their only win vs the Rangers in last years ALDS with 7IP, 2H, 2B, 0 ER and 6K’s. The 6-2 lefty has a fastball that tops out around 97 mph, coupled with an incredible curveball. Moore is definitely a prospect to watch throughout the year for the Rays.

Next up is the Yankees. Their starting rotation this year is determined to make sure their team is not only known for its outstanding offense, but solid pitching as well. CC Sabathia is their ace and arguably the best pitcher in the division, with at least 19 wins in each of his three years with the Yanks. CC has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the league in the past five years, reaching at least 230 innings in every year. At 31 years old, CC should have no problem having another great year for the Yanks. Michael Pineda was the Yankees biggest offseason acquisition this year, as he came over in January in a trade for Jesus Montero. Montero was one of the Yankees most coveted prospects, which says a lot of Pineda’s value.  Pineda is one of the best young pitchers in the MLB. He is a 22 year old, 6′ 7″ giant who just throws straight fire. He had the fourth highest average MPH on his fastball in the entire league at age 22. His fastball combined with his filthy slider led to a 9.1 K/9 last year. Although Pineda has displayed brilliance, there are questions to his consistency (he was 8-6 with 3.03 ERA in 1st half of 2011, 1-4 with 5.12 ERA in 2nd half). Also, he has an “inverted W” pitching style, (similar style to Adam Wainwright, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Stephen Strasburg, Joba “the Hut” Chamberlain), which puts an unhealthy amount of stress on your elbow. Basically, what that means is that he’s eventually going to need Tommy John Surgery. They also added Hiroki Kuroda from the Dodgers, which was a big move because the Sox were very interested in him. Kuroda was as consistent as you could get as a starting pitcher in the last few years. Although his record didn’t reflect his good pitching due to shit run support, he had 3.45 ERA the past four years, including a career best 3.07 ERA last year. Despite this, Kuroda is 36 years old and has pitched on crappy teams, so his ERA could potentially balloon when the pressures on in New York. Rounding up the Yankees rotation is Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes. Nova had 16 wins last year in his rookie season, with a 3.70 ERA. Nova is a ground ball pitcher, which could hurt him giving the aging Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez on the left side of his infield, so I project some regression from his stellar rookie year. Hughes is projected to fill out the competition for the last spot in the Yankee rotation. He was once regarded as a top prospect, but has gotten murdered during a few of his stints in the majors. He has displayed greatness both as a starter and out of the bullpen, but needs to limit his mistakes in order to be an effective starter, especially now that he has a slower fastball than years prior.

The Red Sox fill out the third spot in the ranking. Their top three starters all have the potential to be Cy Young candidates. The most frustrating is Clay Buchholz. Clay displayed brilliance in 2007 when he pitched a no-hitter in his second Major League game. Then he battled depression and got rocked in the Majors and looked as if his career had gone sour. Fortunately Clay came back and dominated the big leagues in 2010 with a 2.33 ERA. Clay’s career took another downfall last year when his season was shortened to a back injury. Hopefully he’s fully healed from his injury and can return smoothly this year. Josh Beckett is another frustrating pitcher of the Sox. We all know what happened in the collapse of last year and Beckett was one of the major problems. Beckett is 31 and entering his 7th year with the Sox, but this year he will be without his personal catcher Jason Varitek. How he will do without Tek remains to be answered. He still finished with a solid year last year despite the collapse (13-7 2.89 ERA 1.03WHIP), so let’s hope he comes back with a mean streak with the desire to prove all the doubters wrong. Jon Lester, on the other hand, has been very consistent for the Sox in the past four years, with an ERA below 3.47 and at least 15 wins in each year. I think Lester is the number one candidate to be a leader for the rotation and take last years collapse on his back. He showed he can handle adversity when he battled cancer in 2006 at age 22, so I think he’ll be able to help the Sox put last year behind them. Daniel Bard is expected to fill the fourth spot of the Sox rotation, despite his great success in the Sox bullpen the last few years. He displays a lot of upside, but did not prove himself as a starter in the minors, so it should be interesting to see his development. Bard can always be put back into the bullpen if this doesn’t work out (think the Papelbon experiment in 2007’s spring training). Alfredo Aceves and Andrew Miller should duke it out for the last spot in the rotation. I’m hoping Miller finally lives up to hype as a former first round pick with the Tigers, considering he is only 26 years old.

The fourth best rotation is the Blue Jays, who aren’t far behind the Sox. Ricky Romero is their ace, who went 15-11 with a sub-3 ERA. Although I expect his ERA to increase a little from last years numbers, Romero is still a great first option in the AL East. Brandon Morrow is the Jays second option. Morrow has always displayed a high K/9 rate and a solid WHIP (1.29 last year), but has continually displayed problems pitching with runners on base, resulting in higher ERA’s. (4.72 last year, 4.37 career). Morrow is a good pitcher, but I think he is better suited for the bullpen. Brett Cecil and Dustin McGowan will be average pitchers at best. Cecil got hit hard in April last year and was sent down to Triple-A for a few months, but was too high of a draft pick for the Jays to give up on. McGowan dealt with shoulder surgeries from 2008-2010, and came back last year with control issues. Durability remains a question with him. The Jays last spot is filled with Henderson Alvarez, who thrives on his incredible control (1.13 BB/9). He pitched well in his 10 starts last year and should continue to perform well if he can keep the ball on the ground and maintain his control.

The Orioles remain in the cellar for starting rotation rankings. They don’t deserve much even being said about them. They traded their best pitcher Jeremy Guthrie away to the Rockies in the offseason. On the bright side, they acquired two pitchers from the Japanese league that figure to grab a spot in the rotation. Tsuyoshi Wada had a 1.51 ERA last year, but we all know how well Dice-K’s stills translated to the MLB. Wada is a control pitcher whose pitches top out around the high 80’s. Wei-Yin Chen is a 26 year old lefty that throws harder than Wada and has had a 2.48 ERA over the past four seasons in Japan. I don’t see these two pitchers making a big impact in the offensively stacked AL East. Zach Britton led the Orioles last year with a whopping 11 wins. Jason Hammel, Tommy Hunter, James Arrieta, and Chris Tillman look like they will all fight for starting rotation spots, but none of these pitchers look like they will have much impact.

For previous positional rankings click here: C1B2B3BSSLFCFRFDH

AL East Position Matchup: Designated Hitter

Today, I will conclude my rankings of all the players in each teams’ starting batting lineups. This will be the easiest ranking for me to do in terms of evaluations, considering it will be solely based from an offensive production standpoint, rather than offense and defensive skills like the other positions. The Red Sox DH position was one of the question marks over the offseason. After David Ortiz’s contract was up at the end of the 2011 season, Big Papi made several remarks about how he’d like to join the Yankees to leave all the drama in Boston. During the offseason, he was constantly working with the Red Sox for a new contract and finally settled on a 1-year contract for $14.58 million to avoid arbitration. I’ll be the first to say the Sox paid too much for the greedy Ortiz here, who wanted $16.5 million, a significant bump up from the $12.5 he received in 2011. Despite paying too much, the Red Sox were basically forced into needing the 36 year old Ortiz in their lineup because they wouldn’t have been able to find anything close to a replacement in the free agent market this year.

Just as a quick update on Spring Training, Varitek is set to retire at 5:30 today and the Sox are getting prepared for their first “game” vs Northeastern at 2:35 in Fort Myers on Saturday. This game will be the first leg of a double header, with Boston College playing the night cap.

Anyways, here are the rankings:
(Once again, for previous positional rankings click here: C1B2B3BSSLFCFRF)

1. David Ortiz, Red Sox
2. Raul Ibanez, Yankees
3. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays
4. Luke Scott, Rays
5. Wilson Betemit, Orioles

Ortiz has surprised many fans in Red Sox Nation that were ready to kick him out of town in 2009. After struggling the two years after the Sox second championship in four years, Big Papi has revitalized his career. He has hit 61 Home Runs with 198 RBI’s in the last two years combined. The biggest turnaround was his .309 AVG last year. It looked like Papi had no idea how to hit against the shift, but last year was a great sign for him. Adrian Gonzalez was said to give Ortiz a lot of confidence in hitting the ball with power to the opposite field, instead of trying to pull it to the right field or finnessing it against the shift, as Ortiz had tried in years prior. I’m predicting another solid year from Papi, but a little bit of dropoff considering his age. I’m thinking a .285/27 HR/ 95 RBI line from Ortiz in possibly his last year in a Red Sox uniform.

Next up is the massive upgrade from the Yankees. Jorge Posada was a great catcher throughout his career for the Yankees, but they were hurting from the DH spot last year. When the Yankees dumped AJ Burnett’s salary a month ago, they were able to sign Raul Ibanez to be their Designated Hitter and backup outfielder. Although Ibanez at 39 years old is nearing the end of his career, he is a very big upgrade from Eduardo Nunez, the Yankees other apparent option for the DH spot. Assuming Ibanez can get his AVG back up to career norms (.270-.280) from last year’s .245 average, he should be able to provide consistent pop (20 HR, 84 RBI last year) in the back end of the Yankees lineup.

Edwin Encarnacion of the Blue Jays is the third ranked DH. Last year, Encarnacion made big strides at the plate, showing much more consistency with a .272 BA (.244 in 2010, .225 in 2009). Edwin will most likely hit around his usual 20 HR, but his main issue since 2007 has been his ability to hit with runners on base. Every year since 2007, he AVG has dropped significantly with runners on base, hovering around the Mendoza line (.200) each year. This has been the main reason for his low RBI totals and he needs to improve this AVG to contribute more to the Blue Jay lineup.

Luke Scott is known by many Sox fans for being an outfielder/DH for the Orioles, but he upgraded this year and switched over to the Rays. Scott had his season cut short last year and underwent shoulder surgery to fix a torn labrum. If Scott can return successfully to his numbers of 2010 (.284/27/72), he could end up ahead of Encarnacion and Ibanez in these rankings, but I don’t see that happening. That year was a career year for Scott and I see him returning to a .250 BA with around 15 HR and 60-70 RBI’s.

Last in the rankings is Wilson Betemit of the Orioles. Wilson’s now joining his 7th Major League team and is mostly remembered by Red Sox Nation for his forgettable years with the Yanks. Not much needs to be said about Betemit, although he was fairly successful in limited AB’s in the past two years. At 30 years old, Betemit has never had a season with more than 412 AB’s. If he can provide numbers similar to his .297 AVG of 2010 and .285 AVG of 2011, he should be able to get a full time shot for the Orioles this year.

Stay tuned for pitching analysis throughout the next two weeks.

For previous positional rankings click here: C1B2B3BSSLFCFRF

Now that I have concluded all offensive output for the AL East teams, I want to leave the readers with this question:

 

Yanks Bathroom Photoshoot, Typical

It being only the beginning of Spring Training, I usually hold off on the Yankee insults til at least the beginning of spring games. Don’t get me wrong, the “Yankees Suck” chants are a year round calling for all Boston fans, whether you’re at a Bruins, Celts, Pats game, or even a Sox game against the Blue Jays or any team other than the Yanks. It’s all fair game, but this time of year tends to be an unsaid down time for Yankee hatred, at least publicly, as there’s more of a focus on what’s new within the Sox organization and just an overall pleasant feeling knowing that baseball’s just around the corner.

Needless to say, I was reading something about the Yanks that I found pretty funny. Then a friend sent over a video of it, thanks Steph, and I just couldn’t pass up the opportunity to share it. Apparently as part of their preseason media day, the Yanks did part of their photo shoots in a bathroom at their Spring Training facility in Tampa. I mean we all know A-Rod loves the mirror pics, but I guess now the whole team’s on board. New York Yankees and bathroom photo shoots. Yeah, sounds about right.

Video Here: Yanks Bathroom Photo Shoot

 

AL East Position Matchup: Left field

On the agenda today is Left field. Left field looked like it was going to be a very weak spot last month when it was announced that Carl Crawford underwent offseason surgery on his wrist. It was recently announced that Crawford has high hopes to be back for Opening Day, which is great news for the Red Sox. Hopefully he can start living up to his contract.

Anyways, back to the rankings:

(Once again for other positional rankings click here: C1B2B3BSS)

1. Brett Gardner, Yankees
2. Carl Crawford, Red Sox
3. Desmond Jennings, Rays
4. Nolan Reimold, Orioles
5. Eric Thames, Blue Jays

Brett Gardner was a no brainer in the top spot. If this was said before the season last year, it is almost guaranteed that most of Red Sox Nation would have been up in arms. Gardner has been one of the top defensive outfielders in the past two years (3.2 defensive WAR last year) and he’s a force on the basepaths (at least 47 SB’s in each of the last two years). Gardner came back down to Earth in batting last year from his ridiculous 2010 numbers and saw a drop in his BA (.277 to .259), but he still drew a lot of walks.

Carl Crawford is the true question of this division, and the Red Sox team. After a monster year in 2010, where he had a .307/19/90 line with 47 steals, the Red Sox signed him to a massive contract. Hoping for production close to his 6.1 WAR (wins above replacement) in 2010, they were rewarded with a whopping 0.0 WAR in 2011. Despite this, I can’t stand hearing Sox fans bitch about how bad the guy is. Yes, we overpaid for him, but what big signing haven’t we overpaid for?!? He had a horrible April, along with the rest of the squad, and then as he was starting to get into a groove, he got injured. His wrist was nagging him for a while and his hamstring’s were bothering him all summer. Speed is his forte, and he lost his speed last season, I don’t know what fans expected. I’ve heard how hard of a worker he is and I’m confident he will come back strong this year. It’s great news that he is on pace to come back earlier than initially planned, but I’d rather we make sure we don’t rush this one. Crawford was very consistent for the Rays with the exception of 2008 (marred by injuries) and I am confident he will get his mojo back this year and start to live up to (some) of his money.

Next up is the Tampa Bay Rays leftfielder, Desmond Jennings. Jennings was the main reason that the Rays were able to so willingly part with Crawford (that and the fact that the Sox put way too much money on the table). Jennings came into the big leagues on fire last year hitting .333 throughout July and August, until he finally cooled off in September with a .160 BA. Jennings has been touted as one of the top prospects for the last couple years. He is a great athlete and was voted the most exciting player to watch in the International League in the minors.He is regarded as a top baserunner and defensive player in the minors and I’m really interested in seeing how Jennings does as an everyday guy for the Rays this year.

The fourth spot was the hardest decision to make. Eric Thames was never a big prospect for the Blue Jays organization, but had a good run in his first year in the Majors last year. Nolan Reimold was a highly touted prospect, but is now 28 years old and has yet to make an impact for the Orioles. I’m not sold on Thames considering his struggles against lefties and weak fielding skills. Reimold has yet to pan out in the majors due to injuries and personal problems, but he has been effective in his small samples (13 HR in 267 AB’s last year). He has good speed, which pays off on the basepaths and makes up for his bad instincts in the field. Reimold gets the edge in this matchup due to his greater potential for a full year.

For other positional rankings click here: C1B2B3BSS