Today, I will cover the AL East’s strongest position, Centerfield. To the surprise of many Sox fans, Jacoby Ellsbury absolutely broke out last year. The big story throughout the year will be how the Red Sox handle his expiring contract. They avoided arbitration with Jacoby this year by signing him to a one year $8.05 million contract (a big raise from his $2.4 million earned in 2011). I understand that the Red Sox didn’t want to reward him MVP money for the long term after his one year sample of his abilities, but I think they should make moves on a contract early in the season. The bad news for the Red Sox is that Jacoby’s agent is Scott Boras and he’ll be sure to try to squeeze every penny out of any organization for his clients.
Here are the rankings for Centerfielder:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
2. Curtis Granderson, Yankees
3. B.J. Upton, Rays
4. Adam Jones, Orioles
5. Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays
Throughout all 2011, Jacoby and Granderson were fighting to be the best centerfielder in their division, but also were fighting to be the league MVP at the same time. Long story short, Jacoby got snubbed for the MVP and placed second, while Granderson came in 4th place after his monster season for the Bronx Bombers. 2012 should be no different. As noted earlier, Ellsbury will be in a contract year and out to prove that last year was no fluke. Granderson wants to prove the same thing, considering he finally lived up to the hype that was pegged onto him after his breakout year in 2007 with the Tigers. Similar to the MVP race, Ellsbury inched ahead of Granderson in the rankings. Jacoby really looks like he figured out his power stroke last year and has speed for days. I think his steal numbers will bump back up to the 50’s, but not near the 70 he swiped in 2009. Jacoby’s speed on the basepaths and in the outfield coupled with his consistent batting average make him a good choice to repeat another big year. I’m predicting .305/18 HR/80 RBI’s out of Ells, with 53 SB’s and 115 runs in his contract year. Granderson on the other hand has pretty much established what he is capable of in his six full years in the majors. I see his 41 hrs as a bit of a hiccup last year. Last year, Granderson hit 16 home runs against lefty’s, while he had only hit 20 against them in his entire career. I still see him getting around 30 HR in Yankee stadium, which is built for swings like Grandersons. Despite this, Granderson has a lower average than Ells and doesn’t swipe as many bags. He gets slotted into the second spot due to this.
Next up is Rays outfielder BJ Upton. As his career really begins to shape, it is starting to look like his brother Justin got the better genes. He was an absolute monster for the D-Backs last year in the NL West. BJ has been exposed for his flaws at the plate throughout his career. He has been known for his streaky hitting and when he’s on a hot streak no pitcher wants to face him (like the 2008 playoffs). He’s a very similar player to Jacoby from a statistical standpoint, except for his much lower batting average (.243 BA last year).
Upton’s edge in the field gave him the third ranking over number four, Adam Jones of the Baltimore Orioles. Jones is a very dangerous hitter and getting better each year, but he has yet to master his control of the strike zone (.280 BA with a .319 OBP last year).
Rounding up the rankings in Colby Rasmus of the Blue Jays. Colby had an off year last year after a promising first two seasons in St. Louis. He had a horrible batting year last year, with drops in BA, OBP, HR’s, RBI’s and SB’s. If he can figure out how to correct his batting woes from last year, he can provide some power in the sneaky good Blue Jays offense.