Tag Archives: Red Sox

To Buy or Sell: Red Sox In Unusual Dilemma

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Although the past few seasons have not felt like normal “Red Sox” seasons to the 21st century Red sox fan (i.e. long playoff runs, or even a post-season victory), the 2012 edition of the hometown team finds itself in a place that the organization has not been in for quite a long time.  Mediocrity. Blame it on poor attitudes, injuries, new management, or any other reason, the fact is the 2012 Boston Red Sox have been a .500 ball club for the past 4 months.  In other cities or other situations a team stuck in the middle pack of the standings would instantly look to shop their current assets for future investments.  In places like Cleveland or Oakland, a .500 record would instantly mean trading big league talent or expiring contracts for upcoming prospects, bringing a sense of excitement for the future of these small market towns.  However, for numerous reasons, no matter what the record of the Red Sox is come July 31, 2012, this team will not become sellers at the deadline.

The first reason to not expect the Sox trading pieces is the new rules wild card rules implemented by Major League Baseball for this season.  Unlike the recent playoff structure of having three division winners and one wild card team in each leagues playoffs, Bud Selig has added another wild card spot along with an added one game playoff between the two non-division winners.  This idea was to provide more teams with the belief that they were contenders, and to guarantee scenarios like last year, when the playoff seeding was decided on the final day of the season.  With an added spot in October baseball available, the Sox are of the belief that they are and still will be in contention throughout the season.  As of July 18th the Red Sox were one game back in the wild card race.  After all that this Sox team has gone through this season, the fact that they are still involved in the playoff picture has to give the ownership a belief of optimism.

That leads to the next reason why this team wont be a seller; the ownership.  There is no chance this ownership group will ever let the Red Sox be sellers.  Its gotten to the point where this group cares more about the stupid sellout streak then the performance of the actual ball club.  There has been much talk about how they have finagled many of the most recent “sellouts” either by fixing the numbers or offering dollar tickets at the door, but all that talk would be nullified if the Sox started to deal players from their roster.  How does this ownership group expect to fill seats if they give off the idea that they are giving up on the season by selling at the deadline.  Its just something that isn’t likely with what we know about this ownership group.

The final reason why the Red Sox wont be sellers at the trade deadline, and maybe the most important, is the value that their current players would bring back on the open trade market.  The most common names in the absurd rumors recently, whether it be Crawford to the Marlins, or Beckett to anyone would bring back barely ten cents on the dollar. Take Crawford.  This season he has played 3 Major League games due to injury, and last year was a disaster.  He would still have 5+ years and over $100 million dollars owed to him.  He even stated that he “is probably going to need Tommy John surgery”.  Literally no team will be willing to part with respectable prospects for Crawford at this point, making it absurd to think about trading him.  Beckett is still an overpaid, prima donna, who’s 2012 has been a roller coaster to say the least.  Not only would the Sox have to eat a chunk of his contract, they would also receive virtually nothing of substance in return for him.  Further example of this concept was shown by the recent trade of Youk.  Granted it was a trade that needed to happen, but look at what the Sox received:  A “project” guy in Zach Stewart and a player in Brent Lillibridge that the Sox have already designated for assignment.  That is a very likely outcome for many trade scenarios with any of the players that the Sox would look to possibly move.  It would serve the Red sox better to hang on to these players as they represent more value to Boston than any other organization.

Although it may be a popular ideology to blow this edition of the Boston Red Sox in hopes of building a strong contender in the future, there are many factors that will prevent this team being a seller.  Don’t look for the Sox to be trading away major pieces come July 31st because of the new wild card rules, the ownership’s priorities, and the limited return these Red Sox would bring for the future.

Guest Article by Pat Horan. Follow him on twitter @Pathoran1

Weekend Recap

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Not a bad Monday for us those of us here in Boston reflecting back on this weekend in the sports world. The Celtics stretched their win streak to 5 games, topping off the weekend with an absolute clobbering D. Wade and the Heat. With a month left of games, the C’s sit at the 4 spot in a crowded Eastern Conference playoff race and one game up on the 76ers for the lead in the division. A 14 game April will make or break the C’s and set the stage for what could be the last playoff run of the Big Three era. On the ice, the B’s took care of business in New York, taking one a piece from the Islanders and the Rangers while clinching the Northeast Division with three games left on the schedule. The Bruins wrap up the regular season Saturday at home vs. Buffalo before gearing up for playoff hockey once again in Boston. As if a weekend of winning wasn’t enough, today brings us one day closer to baseball season. The Red Sox open up regular season play this Thursday in Detroit, starting off a 6 day, 6 game road trip before baseball comes back to Boston on Friday the 13th against the dreaded Rays. It’s a good week to be from Boston. Happy Monday!20120402-163315.jpg

O Captain! My Captain!: Varitek Set to Retire Thursday

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On July 31st, 1997, the Boston Red Sox received Derek Lowe and first round pick Jason Varitek from the Seattle Mariners for reliever Heathcliff Slocumb. After being traded as a minor league prospect, there was no way Varitek could have imagined playing his entire 15 year major league career with one team. Similar to Tim Wakefield, it was assumed by many that V-Tek would walk away after the season ended last year. News has now broken out that Jason is set to announce his retirement Thursday at Fort Myers.

Throughout his long baseball career, Jason was always a winner. He is one of only two players in the history of baseball to play in the World Championship of the Little League Championship, College World Series National Championship, and the World Series in the MLB (Ed Vosberg is the other for those keeping track). His high school also won the State championship for Florida in 1990 and was ranked as the number one team in the nation by USA Today.

I hope your starting to get the “pitcher” (pun intended, horrible, but a pun nonetheless) because it was felt by many Sox fans that V-Tek knew some of the pitchers better than they did themselves. He was never the best hitting catcher, but not the worst either. Despite this, Jason was the perfect battery mate for every Sox pitcher (with the exception of Timmy and his knuckleball) and perfect teammate. He was crucial to both championship teams in 2004 and 2007 and Captain of the Red Sox from 2006 on. He caught a Major League record four no-hitters, which is a true testament of how well he could call a game behind the plate. I hope Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Ryan Lavarnway were able to learn a lot from Jason Varitek in their short time with him. His endless preparation and knowledge of the game was a huge benefit to the Sox pitchers throughout the last 14 years.

My favorite Varitek memory (along with many other Red Sox fans) came on July 24, 2004. In one of those summer games vs the Yanks at Fenway on Fox, A-Rod got pegged by Bronson Arroyo. Naturally, A-Rod started to bitch back at Arroyo, yelling “F*ck you, F*ck you.” There was no way Tek was having any of that and shoved his glove square into A-Rod’s face and starting a bench clearing brawl. The Sox went on to comeback from a 9-4 deficit and beat the Yanks 11-10 in the 9th by scoring three on the “invincible” Mariano Rivera. The game immediately went down as an all time great. That moment seemed to be the turning point of their championship season. The Sox posted the best record in the bigs from that point on and developed a much-needed swagger against the Yanks and Rivera that proved crucial when they were down 3-0 in the ALCS.

It’s going to be tough in the Sox clubhouse this year with all the crap that unfolded during their September collapse. Not having guys like Wakefield and Varitek won’t help, but as I have said before hopefully guys like Salty and Adrian will step up like they said. As I noted in my catcher positional rankings, I hope that the Red Sox can reward Varitek similar to how the Pats treated Kevin Faulk. The only difference would be since Varitek will be officially retired, his role will be a coaching job within the organization, not the player/mentor role Faulk had this past year. Either way, Timmy and V-Tek will be missed greatly, both in the clubhouse and on the TV screen. They are true heroes of Red Sox Nation and they deserved to be honored for their accomplishments.

Which brings me to this poll question, feel free to put in some comments.

 

Sox Recieve Chris Carpenter in Return for Theo

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Tuck it in Red Sox nation, not this Chris Carpenter.

Today, the Red Sox finally received some compensation for Theo leaving to go to the Cubbies. We received 26 year old righthander Chris Carpenter. Carpenter is a 6’4″ former third round pick that has spent the majority of his time in the minors as a starting pitcher. He had Tommy John surgery his freshman year at Kent State and had another elbow procedure his sophomore year. His medical history scared off a lot of teams on draft day and that is mostly why he dropped to the Cubs in the third round.He has consistently been ranked as one of the top 10-15 prospects in the Cubs farm, but has had control issues that have kept him from reaching the big leagues. Carpenter projects to be better suited out of the bullpen in the major leagues due to his pitching repertoire. He has a mid-upper 90’s fastball that can top out in triple digits. Although there isn’t much movement on his pitch, his height still makes a fastball coming at that speed difficult to handle for batters. Carpenter also has a solid slider, but frequently has trouble controlling it. Unless he can develop better secondary pitches, Carpenter won’t be much more than a 7th or 8th inning guy in the big leagues. In 10 major league appearances last year, Carpenter had a solid ERA (2.79), but allowed nearly 2 baserunners per inning.

I’m looking forward to see how Carpenter can develop in our farm system and hopefully get a shot in the majors this year. The key to him being successful this year is not working on developing a third pitch, but instead ensuring control of his fastball and slider and limit his walks (7 BB in 9.2 innings in the majors last year).I’m just glad to see we got some sort of compensation for Theo leaving as I really think the Sox butchered this one. I think they lost all power when they let Theo go before they had any compensation.

 

AL East Position Matchup: Shortstop

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Great news as pitchers and catchers reported for the Sox yesterday.The first workout will be tomorrow and position players will arrive February 24, a day before the teams first full workout. The Red Sox clubhouse is still talking to media about the epic collapse from last year, with Lester and Beckett openly taking blame. Also, guys like Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Adrian Gonzalez have already been vocal about assuming the leadership type of role this team needs.

Let’s get back to the matter at hand, ranking the shortstop’s in the AL East.

Find prior rankings here: C–1B–2B–3B

1. J.J. Hardy, Orioles
2. Derek Jeter, Yankees
3. Yunel Escobar, Blue Jays
4. Nick Punto/Mike Aviles/ Jose Iglesias, Red Sox
5. Sean Rodriguez/ Reid Brignac, Rays

Derek Jeter is nearing the end of his career and the shortstop position has switched from a division strength during the late 90’s and early 2000’s to now the AL East’s weakest position. It seems like just yesterday Nomar was being called “The Human Vacuum Cleaner” by Sports Illustrated for Kids and featured with his shirt off on the Sports Illustrated cover labeled “A Cut Above.” Whether it was the cover jinx or not, injuries arose for the Beantown legend and the position has become vastly different from the days when Nomar and Jeter would duke it out as potential MVP candidates.

J.J. Hardy, Derek Jeter and Yunel Escobar all display plus gloves in the field, although Jeter is the only to have received a Gold Glove out of the three (he has received five total-his latest in 2010). Despite this, Jeter might now be the worst fielder out of three since his range has begin to diminish with his aging body. J.J. Hardy is ranked first due to his reinvented swing from the past two years. Hardy went from hitting 50 HRS in 2007-2008 combined to 11 in 2009 and 6 in 2010. Hardy was killed by pitchers (specifically lefthanders) in these two years, after Alex Eisenberg of Baseball-Intellect.com revealed some flaws in Hardy’s plate approach. He has spent the 2009-2010 battling through a wrist injury and other minor injuries. Hardy now has spent the end of 2010 and 2011 redefining his plate approach by shortening up his swing and lowering and extended his arms in the beginning of the approach. He has began pulling the pull more often and the results showed last year. In his bounce back year, he had 30 HRS and 80 RBI’s. I expect Hardy to hit around 28-34 HR in the hitter friendly Camden Yards.

Next up is Derek Jeter. In Big Nons story earlier this year, I chimed in the comments section giving my thoughts on Jeter: “Can’t call yourself a true fan of both the Red Sox and baseball unless you admit Derek Jeter is a great ballplayer. The guy hustles on the field and is the ideal team captain. Any time i see someone go full speed into a ball in the stands and dive in there with the fans the way Jeter did years back against the Sox, I’m impressed. “The flip?” One of the best heads up plays I have EVER seen a shortstop make. I mean “c’mon son” to any Sox fan that is not willing to have some respect for him.” Despite his declining skills, he is still a force as the leadoff man in the always impressive Yankee lineup. Due to his consistency in this leadoff spot in getting on base and getting himself in scoring position, he gets the nod for the second spot in these rankings. Yunel Escobar on the Blue Jays is the third ranked shortstop. Escobar has displayed the ability to consistently get on base throughout his four year career, even throughout his off year in 2010 (.366 Career OBP with .289 Career AVG).

All of the first three options display some sort of flaw; Jeter’s career is close to ending as he will turn 38 in June and both Escobar and Hardy have had issues with injuries throughout their careers. Despite this, all are better options than the situation the Red Sox and Rays are in. The Red Sox shortstop position opened up in late January when Marco Scutaro was traded. It will be temporarily fixed with Nick Punto and Mike Aviles. Both players are pretty good fielding shortstops, but have been utility infielders for the majority of their careers. Punto has just about zero power, but will reach base at a decent rate in comparison to other options (.249 career BA, .278 last year, .325 Career OBP-.388 last year). Aviles is a slightly better option offensively in terms of power and AVG, but he has a horrible OBP considering his higher AVG (.288 AVG and .318 OBP throughout his career). The real gem could be Jose Iglesias. He has been one of the top prospects in the Red Sox farm system for a few years now, with a glove that is very major league ready. He is touted as a future perennial Gold Glover. His only issue is batting, and its a big issue. He batted .235 in the minors last year, but he has slowly been improving throughout his short professional career. Due to his incredible fielding skills, he will most likely be forced to try and improve in the big leagues. As I’ve said before, I don’t care how good of a fielder he is, every Red Sox fan wants to see offensive production and there is no way he can last in Boston hitting barely above the Mendoza line.

Tampa Bay is in a very similar situation. Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac are both good options fielding wise, but both are worse hitters than Boston’s options, with the exception of Iglesias. Brignac batted .193 last year and Rodriguez batted .223. Unless one of these players figures out their troubles at the plate, Tampa Bay will have the worst situation at shortstop in the AL East.

For other position rankings click here: C–1B–2B–3B

AL East Position Matchup: Third Baseman

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Today, we are going to move over to the hot corner. Two different ends of the spectrum at third base, with the up-and-coming stars in Evan Longoria and Brett Lawrie and the declining talents of Alex Rodriguez and Kevin Youkilis. Also, we have the “Greek God of Walks” in Kevin Youkilis and also the Strikeout King, Mark Reynolds.

For Other AL East Position Rankings: Catcher– 1st Baseman– 2nd Baseman

Here are the rankings for third base:

1. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays
3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
4. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
5. Mark Reynolds, Baltimore Orioles

These rankings were tough, especially after Longoria in the first slot. Every single player, Longoria included, has something to be criticized about. Evan Longoria has been one of the top third basemen since his monster rookie season in 2008, where he had a .272 AVG/27 HR/85 RBI line in 122 games. Year after year, we have seen great production out of the young superstar, but he hasn’t had a full year showcasing ALL of his skills. In 2010, he effectively lowered his strikeouts and maintained a good average, but his power was down (only hit 22 HR in 151 games). In 2011, he regained his power stroke hitting 31 HR’s in 133 games, but his average dipped to .244. Despite these issues, Longoria has the talent to maintain his position as the top third baseman in the AL East.

Most Sox fans are probably wondering who Brett Lawrie is, and why the hell is rated above A-Rod and YOUUUK. Brett Lawrie was one the top prospects in the Brewers coveted farm system a few years ago, until he was traded for Shaun Marcum in December 2010. Lawrie was a former catcher, turned second baseman, turned now third baseman. He displays pure athleticism on the field, which has helped him in his transistion between positions in the minors. His bat has never been questioned throughout his short career. Although he was said to be major league ready after camp last year with the Blue Jays, they decided to give him more time to work on his glove at the hot corner in Triple A. Lawrie was called up to the bigs on August 5th and made an immediate impact, hitting 6 home runs in his first month. In 150 major league at bats, Lawrie ended up with a .293 average, .373 OBP, and 9 HR’s. He figures to be a major part of the Blue Jays offense, currently projected to hit in the 6 spot in a dangerous lineup. I was skeptical to give him the two spot in the rankings, but his potential, coupled with the injury problems of A-Rod and Youk gave me the green light on this ranking. I also think this guy has a little bit of Gronk in him. He was said to have attitude issues in Milwaukee and openly has pictures of himself drinking and doing “Edward FortyHands” online. Brett-Lawrie-2His “don’t give a shit” attitude should help him in dealing with some of the increased attention he will get with his elite ability. I don’t see him being as effective as his short major league stint indicates, as most 22 year olds are bound to experience some issues in the first few years in the bigs, but Lawrie will soon become a household name for any AL East fan.

Next up are the walking wounded. With all due respect to Alex Rodriguez (although I don’t believe he deserves much) and Kevin Youkilis, it is quite obvious both are in the “decline” stages of their careers. Due to his incredible past, A-Rod gets the three ranking and seriously contended for second. It was just too hard to justify him above the rising Lawrie. His major league record streak of 13 straight seasons with over 30 home runs and 100 RBI’s ended abruptly last year. He has battled with numerous different injuries in the past four seasons (missed at least 20 games each season and 150 games total). I do see A-Rod making a bit of a comeback, but he has lost a lot of bat speed in the past few years and can’t make pitchers pay for a bad fastball as consistently as he used to.

Kevin Youkilis is more of the same. It seems like every year Sox fans are talking about “If Youk was healthy…” this and that, we’d be such a better team, a more dangerous lineup, etc. At some point, we need to expect him to get injured. Despite his unusual .258 BA last year, he is a great batter and the “Greek God of Walks,” but he is a liability at third base, where he is not nearly as good a fielder there as he is at 1st Base. I love having him in the lineup and he’s just as much the face of the franchise as Dusty, but he has constantly been getting injured in the past few years. I’m expecting a bounce back year for Youk with around a .300 BA, 20-25 HR, 90-100 RBI and of course his .400 OBP. And I, along with every other fan in Red Sox nation, hope that he stays healthy throughout the year and is good to go for a playoff push in September.

Lastly, we have the Strikeout King, Mark Reynolds of Baltimore. In the past four years,  Mark’s home run’s look like this: 28, 44, 32, 37. Along with the good comes the bad, Mark’s strikeout numbers look like this: 204, 223, 211, 196. His average also looks like this: .239, .260, .198, .221. Pretty sure the averages and strikeouts speak for themselves. Yes, Reynold’s is a good power hitter, but as a manager I would never want his mentality of “swing for the fences” every at bat on my team. That being said, Reynold’s always brings fear into opposing pitcher’s and fan’s late in the game due to his big play potential.

It will be very interesting to see how this years young stars at third base end up matching up against the aging (and injured) stars of the AL East.

For Catcher rankings: click here.
For First Basemen rankings: click here.
For Second Basemen rankings: click here.

 

AL East Position Matchup: Second Base

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Another day and another position ranking, today I will look into second basemen. First, I analyzed catchers, with Baltimore’s Matt Weiters coming out on top. Next, I analyzed first base, with the Red Sox MVP candidate Adrian Gonzalez filling out the top slot. The AL East’s star position has to be second basemen. It contains 3 of the top second basemen, and two legitimate MVP candidates, who are becoming the face of their respective franchises.

The rankings are as follows:

1. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
2. Robinson Cano, Yankees
3. Ben Zobrist, Rays
4. Kelly Johnson, Blue Jays
5. Brian Roberts, Orioles

This has been by far the toughest decision to make in the position rankings. I know every Yankees fan will disagree, as any loyal fan would, but hear me out on this one. Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano have been very similar in terms of offensive impact in the past few years (barring Pedroia’s injury shortened season in 2010). While displaying virtually exact career AVG (Pedroia .305 vs Cano .308), Pedroia has consistently reached base at a higher rate (.373  Career OBP vs Cano’s .349). Cano may be able to put up more HR’s and RBI’s than Pedroia, but Pedey has consistently put up many more steals and runs. Cano’s extra RBI’s can mostly be contributed to his spot in the batting order. Last year, 94.9% of his at bats were taken from the 4 and 5 spots in the order, while 77.3% of Pedroia’s at bats were taken from the 2 spot in the order. Yes, Pedroia’s extra runs can be mostly contributed to his spot in the order, but his steals and baserunning are still much better than Cano’s. All offensive prowess aside, Pedroia definitely has an edge on the defensive side ( 2 Gold Gloves in four eligible seasons vs Cano’s single Gold Glove during his 7 seasons). Also, Pedroia has a better fielding percentage and zone rating. Perhaps the most telling fact is WAR (wins above replacement), in which Pedroia 8.0 2011 rating, clearly outshines Cano’s 5.6.

Despite this argument, it should be noted that if either team had the choice, they would not switch second baseman with the other team. Pedroia is a true Red Sox player, never afraid to get his jersey dirty, while Cano is a Bronx Bomber, provided unheard of power from second baseman position since the sloppy fielding former Yank Alfonso Soriano.

Next up is Ben Zobrist, who is a great player for the Rays, but overshadowed by Cano and Pedroia. Zobrist has the talent to fight for the top second basemen spot in any other division. He has the potential to contend with Cano and Pedroia, but his inconsistency gives him the third ranking. He displayed incredible numbers both last year and in 2009, but his steep dropoff in 2010 (.239 BA and a 63.0% HR decrease) leaves room for concern.

Filling out the fourth spot is Blue Jay second baseman Kelly Johnson. Kelly was acquired by the Jays from the Diamondbacks last year in a trade for Aaron Hill and John MacDonald. Johnson has been even more inconsistent than Zobrist, but should give the Jays a good option at second as long as his average stays up. I see him providing about a .275 average and 20-25 HR’s in his first full year at the Rogers Centre.

Lastly, the Orioles have the oft injured Brian Roberts slotted in as their starting second baseman. Although Roberts was once regarded as a top second baseman, those days are gone after only playing 98 games in the last two years combined. Whether he gets injured again and Robert Andino fills in for him remains the true question. Both will provide similar offensive output and show good speed on the basepaths. I don’t see the credentials to rate either one above any of the other second baseman in this stacked division though.

For Catcher rankings, click here.
For First Baseman rankings, click here.

 

AL East Position Matchup: First Baseman

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As a follow up to yesterday’s post ranking AL East catchers, today I will rank the first basemen of the division. As expected, the first base position provides a lot of power for all five of these teams, but no player is as well rounded as the Adrian the Cat.

The rankings are as follows:

1. Adrian Gonzalez
2. Mark Texeira
3. Carlos Pena
4. Adam Lind
5. Chris Davis

Gonzo needs to be number one here. He was a legitamate MVP candidate last year, which is incredible considering his massive HR drought to start the 2011 season (1 HR in all of April). He’s got a great glove and I expect him to increase his HR total (2nd lowest of career), while maintaining similar RBI production. Although I do see a drop from his career best .338 batting average, I see Gonzo being a force in the middle of the Sox lineup and a MVP contender to start the season.

Texeira is one of the most overpaid players in baseball. He was the third highest paid position player last year (fourth overall). He earned $23.125 million, while Adrian was the 14th highest paid first baseman in the MLB and earned every penny of his $6.3 million. The sad part (for the Yankees) is that they have Texeira and his .248 batting average (from last year) signed into a no trade clause until 2016. I’m the first to admit he is a good hitter, and he’s a player every pitcher is afraid can take them yard any pitch, but he has been unwilling to make any adjustments during his struggles as a Yankee. He’s been known to have struggles adapting to the huge shift that opposing teams put on him as a pull hitter (Sox fans- think David Ortiz during his slump of 2010). Don’t get me wrong, Texiera plays great defense and hits 30+ home  runs a year, but any “elite” hitter that earns that much money and then hits .180, .148, and .167 in the last three postseasons, respecitvely, loses all respect in my vote.

I think Pena is starting to decline a bit with his power, which is why I thought about giving Lind the slight edge over him. Despite this, Pena has an uncanny ability to get on base (his OBP is regularly about 130 points better than his BA) and displays underrated defensive skills. Lind hasn’t been consistent enough to warrant the third spot in rankings. Last up is Chris Davis for the Orioles. Davis was a big time prospect a few years ago for the Rangers, and displayed some good power for them in his first two years in the bigs. Since joining the Orioles, Davis struggled with a shoulder injury. He was a good prospect but hasn’t panned out the last few years, so hopefully he can find the power stroke hes been missing lately.

For Catcher rankings: Click Here.

 

AL East Position Matchup: Catcher

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Spring training is around the corner and it looks like all the rosters are pretty much set in the MLB. I will begin to evaluate how the Red Sox matchup against their four counterparts in the AL East in different positions.

First up will be catcher (remember this is primarily based on projected starters):

1. Matt Wieters, Baltimore
2. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays
3. Russell Martin, Yankees
4. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox
5. Jose Molina, Rays

Wieters was a no brainer here in the first slot. He was a can’t miss prospect since he was drafted 5th overall in 2007. He is not the superstar people once believed after a monster first year in the minors (.388 BA), but he provides decent pop (22 HR’s last year) and won a Gold Glove last year.

The next three were tough to call. I went with Arencibia next after his breakout campaign last year. He provided a bad batting average, but hit 23 Hr’s and had 78 RBI’s in 129 games in his rookie season. Arencibia is still a pretty raw talent, but with his good arm behind the plate and incredible power, he should have a pretty decent career. Third on the list is Russell Martin, who is not the player he was in the beginning of his career with the Dodgers. He has battled through knee and hip injuries since he broke out as a youngster in ’06-’08. He has had a declining batting average since ’08, although he saw in increase in HR and RBI’s for the Bronx Bombers last year. Even though Martin says he is healthy this year, I find it hard to believe he is a better option than Arencibia.

The Red Sox and Saltalamacchia are rated fourth due to the muddled cloud over the position and also an attempt to not be biased in this column. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is the clear number one on the roster right now, although I think Ryan Lavarnway is the better long term solution. The Red Sox also signed Kelly Shoppach over the offseason, which confused me in terms of Lavarnway’s spot on the team. First off, Salty had a huge year for the Red Sox last year. He was a low risk young guy who had an incredible amount of confidence issues (to the point of him struggling to complete throws back to the pitcher). It looked like he found the stroke and confidence that he had as a good prospect growing up in the Braves farm system. Salty and Varitek combined to be some of the worst at throwing out runners last year (25.1% and 23.1%, respectively), and Shoppach should provide some defensive help. The true value of the Sox catcher situation lies in how they deal with Lavarnway. Lavarnway is a 6-4, 225 prospect with a very solid baseball IQ, which is very important behind the plate. The Yale-alum has average catching skills, but has a solid bat and could even provide some help from the DH spot. Sox fans immediately fell in love with Lavarnway when he provided 2 HR and 4RBI’s in a must win game on the second to last game of the season last year in which the Sox won 8-7. This was real impressive in such a high pressure situation in his rookie year and hopefully he will get a chance to build on his progress throughout this season. Also, as an end to the Red Sox section, I see Jason Varitek’s roster spot on the Red Sox gone. I hope they treat him in a similar manner as the Patriots with Kevin Faulk, by keeping him in the organization as a leader but not taking up a valuable roster spot with his declining abilities.

Lastly, the Rays are clearly the bottom of the pile here. I see them making some changes either in the season or during these last few weeks before camp. Right now they have 36 year old Jose Molina slotted behind the plate and he has never even had more than 268 AB’s in a season. Most Sox fans remember him from his days as a Yankees backup. He provides some help defensively (threw out 32.4% of runners), but it is always a good sign for opposing pitchers when he is in the on deck circle.

Stay tuned for more position evaluations throughout the next few weeks.

MLB Playoff Expansion Hits Road Block

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Bud Selig’s office missed the February 1st deadline to have finished a proposed schedule to send to the players association. Talks have not ended and it still looks like a decent possibility that the MLB will be able to expand to two wild card teams in both divisions, but they have encountered many more scheduling issues than anticipated. There are a ton of different issues, but long story short is they need to figure out how to fit in the extra wild card matchups in between the end of the season and start of the ALDS. The real problem comes from scheduling tiebreaker games between first place and wild cards (which becomes much more important now), rain out makeup games, and also, to do everything in compliance with TV contracts.

This is huge news for Red Sox fans. The day they announced a possible expansion of the playoff format was like Christmas day for every fan of the AL East (yes, even Orioles fans). If the MLB is unable to figure out this situation soon, it will be detrimental to the playoff hopes of each the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays. All are in position to be top teams in the MLB again, with the Blue Jays not far behind. As we all remember last year, the Red Sox failed to make the playoffs with 90 wins and the Braves failed to make the playoff on the last day with 89 wins. In the proposed situation, both would have made the playoffs. Also, this is an important proposition because it awards teams for coming in 1st place, by forcing wild card teams to use their best starters in a one game playoff, while 1st place teams get more resting time.

In other news for the Red Sox, the Nationals have agreed to a one year contract with Edwin Jackson, who was widely believed to be the best free agent pitcher left on the market. Talks look like they are winding down between the Red Sox and Roy Oswalt as well. It looks like we will be heading into spring training with Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Bucholz at the front of our rotation. The Red Sox will then have Daniel Bard, Alfredo Aceves, and an island of misfit toys duke it out and try to fill the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation.